Most retail traders on Polymarket lose money. A Galaxy Research study of 2.9 million human-paced accounts found that more than 69% finished below break-even. The group recorded aggregate losses of $338.9 million. The research used Polymarket’s full on-chain history, covering positions, entry prices, holding periods, as well as payouts. Galaxy excluded 125,429 accounts that averaged…
Coin Metrics has rebuilt Ethereum’s historical Standard Flow Metrics, raising a timing problem for tests that treat exchange outflows as a trading signal. The crypto data provider’s Oct. 1 notice says it recomputed Ethereum Standard Flow Metrics from the network’s first block using its most up-to-date information as part of its Ethereum Point-in-Time release. The…
Bitcoin’s recovery above $85,000 faces a demand test after a sharp fall in bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. A new post-payroll study places the strongest burst of forced buying before Friday’s jobs report, while Bitcoin retreated after the release. Bitcoin was $85,276 around press time, up 0.83% over 24 hours. The Sunday price…
The International Monetary Fund has approved a disbursement worth SDR 101.96 million ($138 million) for El Salvador after granting the government a waiver for its failure to meet a condition related to Bitcoin accumulation. The IMF Executive Board completed the second and third reviews of El Salvador’s Extended Fund Facility program on October 1. Limits…
Bitcoin Core has added a safeguard against signing transactions that may not bind funds to the payment destination a user approved. The change, merged into Bitcoin Core’s master development branch on Sept. 25, targets a narrow flaw in partially signed Bitcoin transactions, or PSBTs, that could produce a valid signature without protecting the intended output.…
Claude AI predicts that by January 1, 2027, XRP USD could hit $25, with a blow-off top target of $35, if a very specific catalyst lands for the Ripple army. XRP is currently trading at $1.49, up +0.5% over the past 24 hours, meaning it would need to rise roughly 16.8× from today’s price, implying…
US government debt is one of the easiest assets in the world to borrow against, which lets financial companies get cash without giving up their investments for good. Washington is rewriting the rules for that borrowing, and the result will reach crypto through the companies that keep Treasury securities behind their dollar tokens. The SEC…
Congress is gone from Washington for the final pre-election recess, and it’s time to take stock of what’s going on ahead of November.
India’s crypto users send substantial value to centralized exchanges, but domestic platforms receive just 0.7% of exchange value in Chainalysis’s new regional report. Its Brazil chapter puts Brazil-based exchanges at 12.5% of inflows. The contrast separates two business questions that adoption figures can blur: how much activity is associated with a country, and how much…
The spot Bitcoin ETFs managed to turn the tables for the year as the net flows finally turned green, but there are some concerning signs. Meanwhile, the funds tracking the largest altcoin ended the previous week in the red. This became the second such week out of the last three. BTC ETFs Green, But There’s…